Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 5766 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–39%.

Safest bet that day YX 5766 CLT 07:00 → LGA 08:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3134 CLT 21:03 → LGA 23:00 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5766 Republic	CLT 07:00	LGA 08:57	8%	4%	1.3%	no record
YX 5776 Republic	CLT 09:13	LGA 11:10	13%	5%	1.7%	no record
AA 2036 American Flight history →	CLT 07:04	LGA 08:54	14%	4%	1.4%	82%
YX 5719 Republic	CLT 12:15	LGA 14:11	15%	8%	3.2%	no record
YX 5771 Republic	CLT 14:58	LGA 16:54	19%	8%	1.5%	no record
AA 1150 American Flight history →	CLT 09:20	LGA 11:15	19%	5%	1.7%	77%
AA 2268 American	CLT 11:39	LGA 13:29	26%	7%	2.7%	no record
AA 2927 American	CLT 13:21	LGA 15:24	27%	9%	1.6%	no record
AA 2031 American Flight history →	CLT 21:49	LGA 23:39	30%	8%	1.2%	82%worse than usual
AA 1942 American Flight history →	CLT 15:17	LGA 17:15	35%	12%	1.9%	65%
AA 1060 American Flight history →	CLT 17:38	LGA 19:41	38%	13%	1.3%	62%
F9 3134 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 21:03	LGA 23:00	39%	16%	2.0%	56%
DL 5068 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:36	LGA 11:32	17%	9%	6.5%	83%
DL 5051 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:50	LGA 13:50	23%	7%	6.7%	77%
DL 5047 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 20:12	LGA 22:21	33%	18%	10.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON