Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4146 at 11:30 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 4146 CLT 11:30 → LIT 12:45 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3692 CLT 20:25 → LIT 21:38 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4146 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 11:30	LIT 12:45	17%	4%	1.5%	94%worse than usual
OO 4895 SkyWest	CLT 07:30	LIT 08:38	18%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 5672 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 17:02	LIT 18:13	18%	6%	1.9%	89%
MQ 3726 Envoy	CLT 22:46	LIT 23:56	24%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 3692 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 20:25	LIT 21:38	28%	6%	1.1%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON