Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2946 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2946 CLT 07:15 → MCI 08:48 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1732 CLT 21:34 → MCI 22:58 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2946 American	CLT 07:15	MCI 08:48	10%	4%	3.8%	no record
AA 3233 American	CLT 11:28	MCI 13:00	15%	5%	3.6%	no record
AA 1079 American	CLT 16:05	MCI 17:35	24%	8%	1.6%	no record
AA 2965 American	CLT 18:49	MCI 20:23	26%	12%	1.1%	no record
AA 1732 American Flight history →	CLT 21:34	MCI 22:58	28%	10%	1.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON