Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2170 at 07:27 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2170 CLT 07:27 → MCO 09:07 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 1682 CLT 16:57 → MCO 18:38 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2170 American Flight history →	CLT 07:27	MCO 09:07	14%	4%	0.9%	78%
AA 1576 American	CLT 10:59	MCO 12:39	17%	4%	1.4%	no record
AA 936 American	CLT 09:54	MCO 11:34	21%	4%	1.0%	no record
F9 1759 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 09:29	MCO 11:15	24%	6%	1.5%	69%
AA 2117 American Flight history →	CLT 12:56	MCO 14:37	29%	6%	3.0%	81%worse than usual
AA 1879 American Flight history →	CLT 22:29	MCO 00:17	30%	7%	1.0%	64%
AA 1611 American	CLT 15:01	MCO 16:51	31%	8%	1.9%	no record
AA 1783 American Flight history →	CLT 19:05	MCO 21:00	34%	12%	1.2%	46%
AA 669 American	CLT 16:08	MCO 17:57	35%	10%	1.8%	no record
AA 3200 American Flight history →	CLT 20:15	MCO 22:00	36%	11%	1.3%	61%
AA 612 American Flight history →	CLT 18:05	MCO 20:01	36%	14%	2.4%	54%
AA 1682 American Flight history →	CLT 16:57	MCO 18:38	38%	10%	2.0%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON