tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2305 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2305 Southwest CLT 07:50 MDW 08:54 8% 3% 1.0% no record
WN 4348 Southwest CLT 20:22 MDW 21:30 38% 13% 2.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063 5h 35m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417 4h 55m 93% 80%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405 1h 08m Detroit DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor 4h 14m 95% 70%
DeltaDetails → CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 4h 56m 95% 69%
DeltaDetails → CLT 09:42 → DTW 11:30DL 1639 55m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 4h 04m 83% 67%
DeltaDetails → CLT 13:17 → DTW 15:00DL 2684 3h 07m Detroit DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor 6h 12m 99% 58%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 3h 31m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 7h 49m 98% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON