Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1790 at 09:14 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 1790 CLT 09:14 → MEM 10:08 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 1372 CLT 22:53 → MEM 23:45 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1790 American Flight history →	CLT 09:14	MEM 10:08	14%	4%	1.0%	96%worse than usual
AA 2852 American	CLT 12:52	MEM 13:46	18%	5%	1.7%	no record
AA 1786 American Flight history →	CLT 16:36	MEM 17:32	29%	7%	1.1%	74%
AA 1641 American Flight history →	CLT 21:11	MEM 22:07	31%	8%	0.8%	72%
AA 1372 American Flight history →	CLT 22:53	MEM 23:45	36%	8%	0.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON