Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OH 5035 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day OH 5035 CLT 07:12 → MHT 09:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5033 CLT 20:33 → MHT 22:51 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5035 PSA	CLT 07:12	MHT 09:33	11%	3%	1.4%	no record
AA 5661 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 08:58	MHT 11:19	12%	3%	1.8%	95%
OH 5397 PSA	CLT 14:26	MHT 16:47	18%	5%	1.4%	no record
AA 5033 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:33	MHT 22:51	26%	6%	1.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON