Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1165 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–49%.

Safest bet that day AA 1165 CLT 05:15 → MIA 07:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 400 CLT 18:43 → MIA 20:53 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1165 American Flight history →	CLT 05:15	MIA 07:20	9%	3%	1.1%	92%
AA 770 American Flight history →	CLT 07:05	MIA 09:12	18%	4%	1.0%	83%
AA 3184 American Flight history →	CLT 09:01	MIA 11:02	28%	5%	2.1%	90%worse than usual
AA 969 American Flight history →	CLT 11:02	MIA 13:11	30%	6%	4.6%	88%worse than usual
F9 3038 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 21:53	MIA 23:59	38%	13%	2.7%	82%worse than usual
F9 3699 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 11:31	MIA 13:36	39%	12%	10.7%	66%
AA 3068 American Flight history →	CLT 22:47	MIA 00:48	40%	8%	1.0%	66%
AA 1198 American	CLT 13:27	MIA 15:29	41%	10%	5.1%	no record
AA 565 American	CLT 19:42	MIA 21:43	47%	12%	1.6%	no record
AA 3011 American	CLT 16:46	MIA 18:58	48%	12%	1.8%	no record
AA 400 American Flight history →	CLT 18:43	MIA 20:53	49%	12%	1.7%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON