Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3193 at 11:46 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 3193 CLT 11:46 → MKE 12:54 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1072 CLT 20:49 → MKE 21:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3193 American	CLT 11:46	MKE 12:54	20%	6%	1.7%	no record
AA 2395 American	CLT 16:56	MKE 18:12	31%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 1072 American Flight history →	CLT 20:49	MKE 21:54	33%	11%	1.0%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON