Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2287 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 2287 CLT 07:08 → MSY 08:14 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 608 CLT 20:59 → MSY 22:07 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2287 American Flight history →	CLT 07:08	MSY 08:14	13%	4%	1.0%	91%
AA 2030 American	CLT 11:51	MSY 12:57	22%	5%	2.1%	no record
AA 2615 American Flight history →	CLT 17:09	MSY 18:21	33%	10%	1.9%	79%worse than usual
AA 608 American Flight history →	CLT 20:59	MSY 22:07	36%	12%	1.5%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON