Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2278 at 15:06 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2278 American Flight history →	CLT 15:06	OMA 16:48	25%	7%	1.2%	85%
AA 961 American Flight history →	CLT 22:41	OMA 00:19	37%	8%	1.6%	78%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 08:00 → OMA 09:19DL 2632	4h 49m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	2h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 10:39 → OMA 11:57DL 3838 · flown by SkyWest	6h 37m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:46DL 1125	5h 45m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	53m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → OMA 09:48DL 4055 · flown by SkyWest	4h 48m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364	6h 29m	98%	74%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	3h 23m Denver	DEN 13:50 → OMA 16:24UA 2327	8h 44m	99%	73%
American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → OMA 11:28AA 2823	6h 43m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:57 → MSP 16:44DL 2819	1h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 18:25 → OMA 19:47DL 4024 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	91%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157	48m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364	4h 26m	74%	56%
United Details →	CLT 17:04 → IAH 18:53UA 4020 · flown by Mesa	1h 02m Houston	IAH 19:55 → OMA 22:29UA 8246	6h 25m	74%	50%
American Details →	CLT 18:26 → DFW 20:11AA 2815	1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → OMA 23:22AA 2628	5h 56m	69%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON