tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 8h 08m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678 1h 35m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → ONT 12:06AA 2661 7h 25m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:34 → ONT 11:52AA 2956 9h 07m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 58m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 07m 90% 72%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:22 → DFW 09:14AA 1005 3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:14 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 9h 10m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → CLT 18:10 → SLC 20:29DL 2070 2h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 8h 38m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 11m 100% 65%
AmericanDetails → CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588 3h 58m Phoenix PHX 16:54 → ONT 18:20AA 1666 9h 43m 100% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → CLT 19:52 → DEN 21:35F9 1361 54m Denver DEN 22:29 → ONT 23:50F9 1261 6h 58m 63% 41%
AmericanDetails → CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:55 → ONT 19:00AA 3006 6h 56m 71% 40%
AmericanDetails → CLT 19:52 → DFW 21:44AA 1698 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:39 → ONT 23:55AA 1695 7h 03m 57% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON