Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1304 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–50%.

Safest bet that day UA 1304 CLT 06:45 → ORD 07:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2488 CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1304 United Flight history →	CLT 06:45	ORD 07:59	14%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 2843 American Flight history →	CLT 07:46	ORD 09:02	17%	4%	1.4%	86%
AA 1038 American Flight history →	CLT 09:42	ORD 11:00	17%	6%	1.7%	83%
AA 2908 American Flight history →	CLT 11:01	ORD 12:19	18%	6%	2.7%	90%
UA 3442 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 13:06	ORD 14:30	26%	11%	2.5%	74%
AA 2530 American Flight history →	CLT 12:57	ORD 14:08	31%	12%	4.6%	67%
UA 3491 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 15:12	ORD 16:37	34%	15%	4.0%	95%worse than usual
AA 627 American Flight history →	CLT 22:41	ORD 23:44	37%	15%	1.4%	61%
AA 815 American Flight history →	CLT 21:09	ORD 22:20	39%	19%	1.9%	55%
AA 2423 American	CLT 14:41	ORD 15:52	40%	17%	3.6%	no record
AA 536 American Flight history →	CLT 16:16	ORD 17:39	41%	19%	2.7%	68%
YX 3421 Republic	CLT 17:45	ORD 19:05	42%	20%	3.5%	no record
AA 2488 American Flight history →	CLT 18:26	ORD 19:51	50%	22%	2.7%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON