Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2072 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2072 CLT 07:16 → ORF 08:39 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 5622 CLT 20:24 → ORF 21:45 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2072 American Flight history →	CLT 07:16	ORF 08:39	13%	5%	1.0%	82%
AA 1323 American Flight history →	CLT 11:30	ORF 12:52	18%	6%	1.9%	92%
OH 5659 PSA	CLT 09:07	ORF 10:34	19%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 2911 American Flight history →	CLT 13:02	ORF 14:24	22%	8%	1.1%	78%
AA 2674 American Flight history →	CLT 22:29	ORF 23:45	31%	9%	1.3%	70%
AA 2651 American	CLT 16:05	ORF 17:27	31%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 2519 American Flight history →	CLT 18:23	ORF 19:49	34%	11%	1.5%	46%
AA 5622 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:24	ORF 21:45	35%	10%	1.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON