tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2873 American CLT 18:43 PDX 21:18 31% 9% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 3h 00m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661 9h 20m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:25DL 539 7h 55m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405 1h 12m Detroit DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171 7h 36m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 7h 57m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503 9h 37m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 3h 00m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 9h 33m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678 1h 48m Phoenix PHX 10:53 → PDX 13:54AA 2684 9h 13m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → CLT 14:57 → MSP 16:44DL 2819 1h 50m Minneapolis MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151 8h 18m 92% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:45 → ORD 07:59UA 1304 49m Chicago ORD 08:48 → PDX 11:11UA 751 7h 26m 65% 53%
AmericanDetails → CLT 17:04 → PHL 19:01AA 864 1h 06m Philadelphia PHL 20:07 → PDX 23:36AA 2245 9h 32m 68% 49%
AmericanDetails → CLT 18:26 → DFW 20:11AA 2815 1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:30 → PDX 23:34AA 2298 8h 08m 70% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON