Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1838 at 05:53 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1838 CLT 05:53 → PHL 07:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest F9 1384 CLT 14:43 → PHL 16:32 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1838 American Flight history →	CLT 05:53	PHL 07:41	8%	4%	0.9%	70%
AA 3325 American	CLT 07:49	PHL 09:36	12%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 2565 American	CLT 09:26	PHL 11:15	14%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2498 American Flight history →	CLT 11:00	PHL 12:43	18%	6%	1.5%	79%
OH 5118 PSA	CLT 21:05	PHL 22:51	18%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 2573 American Flight history →	CLT 13:02	PHL 14:50	23%	8%	1.0%	76%
AA 1827 American	CLT 22:24	PHL 00:13	28%	8%	1.8%	no record
AA 9788 American	CLT 22:25	PHL 00:07	30%	8%	1.8%	no record
AA 9792 American	CLT 19:10	PHL 20:58	31%	12%	1.5%	no record
AA 864 American Flight history →	CLT 17:04	PHL 19:01	32%	12%	1.1%	70%
AA 423 American Flight history →	CLT 18:13	PHL 20:13	32%	14%	1.3%	66%
F9 2388 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 20:41	PHL 22:30	35%	16%	2.3%	79%worse than usual
F9 1384 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 14:43	PHL 16:32	37%	19%	1.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON