Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1678 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 1678 CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3057 CLT 20:33 → PHX 21:54 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1678 American Flight history →	CLT 07:41	PHX 09:05	16%	4%	1.1%	89%
AA 1986 American Flight history →	CLT 09:41	PHX 11:04	19%	5%	1.1%	90%
AA 588 American Flight history →	CLT 11:37	PHX 12:56	21%	6%	1.5%	87%
AA 1044 American Flight history →	CLT 13:06	PHX 14:39	24%	6%	0.9%	80%
AA 1711 American Flight history →	CLT 14:43	PHX 16:13	26%	7%	1.0%	81%
AA 3046 American Flight history →	CLT 16:59	PHX 18:29	32%	9%	1.2%	82%worse than usual
AA 1274 American	CLT 18:22	PHX 19:55	36%	11%	1.0%	no record
AA 3057 American	CLT 20:33	PHX 21:54	40%	12%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON