Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2310 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 2310 CLT 08:05 → PIT 09:30 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2676 CLT 20:25 → PIT 21:57 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2310 American Flight history →	CLT 08:05	PIT 09:30	10%	4%	0.9%	91%
AA 2888 American	CLT 09:55	PIT 11:27	13%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1736 American	CLT 11:00	PIT 12:32	15%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 2307 American Flight history →	CLT 15:18	PIT 16:53	20%	7%	1.0%	75%
AA 1962 American Flight history →	CLT 22:47	PIT 00:16	24%	7%	0.7%	73%
AA 2930 American Flight history →	CLT 18:16	PIT 19:45	32%	10%	0.8%	67%
AA 2676 American Flight history →	CLT 20:25	PIT 21:57	32%	9%	0.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON