Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2476 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2476 CLT 09:25 → PNS 10:12 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3131 CLT 22:57 → PNS 23:46 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2476 American	CLT 09:25	PNS 10:12	20%	7%	1.0%	no record
OH 5288 PSA	CLT 11:32	PNS 12:22	20%	8%	2.2%	no record
OH 5038 PSA	CLT 15:16	PNS 16:06	23%	10%	2.0%	no record
AA 5429 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:16	PNS 19:10	25%	13%	2.4%	69%
AA 3131 American Flight history →	CLT 22:57	PNS 23:46	33%	9%	1.2%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON