Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1569 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1569 CLT 07:11 → PVD 09:17 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2318 CLT 20:38 → PVD 22:56 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1569 American	CLT 07:11	PVD 09:17	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1877 American Flight history →	CLT 11:00	PVD 13:07	16%	4%	1.5%	87%
AA 2679 American	CLT 13:43	PVD 15:50	19%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2338 American Flight history →	CLT 16:20	PVD 18:30	26%	7%	1.0%	76%
AA 2318 American Flight history →	CLT 20:38	PVD 22:56	28%	8%	1.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON