Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OH 5211 at 09:36, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5211 PSA	CLT 09:36	RAP 11:09	21%	4%	2.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rapid City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 09:33 → RAP 10:18DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest	5h 58m	96%	81%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	2h 58m Denver	DEN 13:25 → RAP 14:46UA 5556 · flown by SkyWest	8h 06m	98%	77%
American Details →	CLT 11:14 → DFW 13:07AA 2747	2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:11 → RAP 16:40AA 3532 · flown by Envoy	7h 26m	95%	77%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:28 → RAP 22:06AA 3567 · flown by Envoy	9h 02m	99%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON