Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1749 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 1749 CLT 07:15 → RDU 08:18 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3178 CLT 20:56 → RDU 21:54 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1749 American	CLT 07:15	RDU 08:18	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1768 American	CLT 09:25	RDU 10:38	16%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2688 American Flight history →	CLT 10:52	RDU 11:55	16%	6%	1.1%	85%
AA 1897 American Flight history →	CLT 12:54	RDU 13:57	21%	7%	1.5%	86%
AA 2704 American Flight history →	CLT 14:40	RDU 15:48	24%	7%	0.9%	74%
AA 1894 American Flight history →	CLT 16:56	RDU 18:05	33%	10%	1.4%	77%
AA 1904 American Flight history →	CLT 18:28	RDU 19:31	34%	11%	1.1%	74%
AA 494 American Flight history →	CLT 22:57	RDU 23:58	38%	11%	0.9%	74%worse than usual
AA 3178 American Flight history →	CLT 20:56	RDU 21:54	43%	13%	1.1%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON