Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1775 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 1775 CLT 07:16 → RIC 08:37 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1909 CLT 18:16 → RIC 19:36 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1775 American	CLT 07:16	RIC 08:37	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
OH 5144 PSA	CLT 12:11	RIC 13:35	18%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 5119 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:15	RIC 10:36	18%	4%	1.1%	100%worse than usual
OH 5505 PSA	CLT 13:21	RIC 14:45	21%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 2239 American	CLT 22:41	RIC 00:00	33%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 993 American Flight history →	CLT 21:36	RIC 22:50	34%	9%	1.0%	74%
AA 1757 American	CLT 16:09	RIC 17:28	35%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 1909 American Flight history →	CLT 18:16	RIC 19:36	40%	10%	0.9%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON