Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1781 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1781 CLT 07:15 → RSW 09:21 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1176 CLT 20:56 → RSW 22:52 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1781 American	CLT 07:15	RSW 09:21	14%	4%	1.5%	no record
AA 2018 American Flight history →	CLT 10:57	RSW 13:02	20%	6%	2.2%	76%
AA 1930 American Flight history →	CLT 16:09	RSW 18:15	31%	8%	2.0%	76%
AA 1176 American Flight history →	CLT 20:56	RSW 22:52	35%	10%	1.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON