Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2889 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2889 CLT 07:09 → SAT 09:10 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2441 CLT 20:19 → SAT 22:16 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2889 American	CLT 07:09	SAT 09:10	14%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2934 American Flight history →	CLT 15:20	SAT 17:25	24%	8%	1.4%	80%
AA 1258 American Flight history →	CLT 18:34	SAT 20:40	31%	11%	1.1%	72%
AA 2441 American Flight history →	CLT 20:19	SAT 22:16	34%	12%	1.1%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON