Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OH 5277 at 07:33 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–23%.

Safest bet that day OH 5277 CLT 07:33 → SAV 08:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1311 CLT 14:43 → SAV 15:53 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5277 PSA	CLT 07:33	SAV 08:49	10%	3%	1.3%	no record
OH 5172 PSA	CLT 11:03	SAV 12:18	16%	5%	2.7%	no record
AA 2076 American Flight history →	CLT 08:56	SAV 10:10	17%	4%	1.2%	40%
OH 5029 PSA	CLT 17:15	SAV 18:30	21%	8%	1.8%	no record
AA 5563 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:49	SAV 20:09	21%	8%	1.6%	85%
AA 5382 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:39	SAV 21:54	23%	10%	1.9%	69%
AA 1311 American	CLT 14:43	SAV 15:53	25%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 5890 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:10	SAV 12:35	8%	0%	0.0%	92%
AA 5910 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:10	SAV 10:31	17%	7%	0.0%	83%
AA 5870 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:10	SAV 12:31	22%	11%	0.0%	78%
AA 6119 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 15:46	SAV 17:07	30%	10%	2.4%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON