Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 4170 at 09:37 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–34%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4170 CLT 09:37 → SGF 10:55 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4017 CLT 20:15 → SGF 21:34 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4170 Envoy	CLT 09:37	SGF 10:55	19%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 5670 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 14:37	SGF 15:54	22%	6%	1.6%	95%worse than usual
AA 5466 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:40	SGF 17:56	25%	8%	2.1%	83%
AA 4017 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 20:15	SGF 21:34	34%	10%	1.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON