tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 783 at 11:03, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 783 American Flight history → CLT 11:03 SJU 14:50 26% 6% 1.8% 85%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 08:13 → SJU 11:53DL 1930 6h 23m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:00 → IAD 07:29UA 6279 · flown by Mesa 1h 05m Dulles IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021 6h 34m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 38m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:15 → MIA 07:20AA 1165 1h 00m Miami MIA 08:20 → SJU 11:04AA 1341 5h 49m 92% 77%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:53 → PHL 07:41AA 1838 1h 44m Philadelphia PHL 09:25 → SJU 13:19AA 614 7h 26m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → CLT 11:48 → IAH 13:34UA 6236 · flown by Mesa 1h 29m Houston IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701 8h 50m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 8h 07m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:05 → MIA 09:12AA 770 1h 59m Miami MIA 11:11 → SJU 13:58AA 1613 6h 53m 98% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:45 → ORD 07:59UA 1304 50m Chicago ORD 08:49 → SJU 14:44UA 1996 7h 59m 68% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON