tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:01, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1895 American CLT 09:32 SLC 11:53 19% 4% 1.1% no record
DL 2070 Delta Flight history → CLT 18:10 SLC 20:29 30% 8% 2.1% 85%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830 6h 44m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:05 → BOS 08:31DL 5648 · flown by Republic 2h 44m Boston BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:20DL 464 10h 15m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 7h 49m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678 1h 16m Phoenix PHX 10:21 → SLC 13:02AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest 7h 21m 92% 74%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:00 → JFK 07:59DL 5079 · flown by Endeavor 3h 15m New York JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 10h 21m 95% 71%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:43 → SLC 10:37AA 1878 6h 52m 94% 71%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 1h 13m Denver DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963 6h 33m 93% 70%
UnitedDetails → CLT 11:48 → IAH 13:34UA 6236 · flown by Mesa 51m Houston IAH 14:25 → SLC 16:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 6h 52m 86% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908 46m Chicago ORD 13:05 → SLC 15:38AA 1873 6h 37m 56% 34%
AmericanDetails → CLT 18:26 → DFW 20:11AA 2815 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → SLC 22:59AA 2993 6h 33m 60% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON