tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 30m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 49m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 1h 25m Denver DEN 11:52 → SMF 13:36UA 2673 7h 56m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → CLT 18:10 → SLC 20:29DL 2070 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 8h 34m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → CLT 16:50 → LAX 18:55AA 1499 2h 49m Los Angeles LAX 21:44 → SMF 23:20AA 4908 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 93% 75%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:22 → DFW 09:14AA 1005 2h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:45 → SMF 13:28AA 2078 9h 06m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:45 → ORD 07:59UA 1304 1h 05m Chicago ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145 8h 06m 86% 71%
UnitedDetails → CLT 14:53 → IAD 16:30UA 6203 · flown by Mesa 1h 41m Dulles IAD 18:11 → SMF 21:01UA 8284 9h 08m 90% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLT 19:52 → DFW 21:44AA 1698 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59AA 509 7h 07m 50% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON