tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 08:40, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 358 American Flight history → CLT 18:00 SNA 20:06 33% 7% 1.0% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 3h 01m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 34m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405 1h 43m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 05m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 2h 58m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:56UA 1707 9h 16m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:35 → SNA 10:50AA 1939 8h 05m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:22 → DFW 09:14AA 1005 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:46 → SNA 13:03AA 1933 8h 41m 100% 71%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678 1h 59m Phoenix PHX 11:04 → SNA 12:31AA 1656 7h 50m 96% 69%
DeltaDetails → CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 7h 30m 93% 69%
AmericanDetails → CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986 3h 03m Phoenix PHX 14:07 → SNA 15:34AA 2463 8h 53m 99% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLT 18:26 → DFW 20:11AA 2815 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:16 → SNA 22:24AA 348 6h 58m 65% 44%
AmericanDetails → CLT 14:43 → PHX 16:13AA 1711 52m Phoenix PHX 17:05 → SNA 18:39AA 2471 6h 56m 68% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON