Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1452 at 09:16 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1452 CLT 09:16 → SRQ 11:10 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest MQ 4174 CLT 15:27 → SRQ 17:25 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1452 American Flight history →	CLT 09:16	SRQ 11:10	22%	7%	1.8%	75%
AA 2604 American Flight history →	CLT 19:07	SRQ 21:02	31%	13%	3.4%	77%
MQ 4174 Envoy	CLT 15:27	SRQ 17:25	33%	10%	4.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON