Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2497 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2497 CLT 07:26 → STL 08:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2686 CLT 18:59 → STL 20:03 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2497 American Flight history →	CLT 07:26	STL 08:29	12%	4%	1.2%	89%
WN 1932 Southwest	CLT 10:40	STL 11:36	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 3096 American Flight history →	CLT 11:00	STL 12:05	18%	5%	1.6%	68%
OH 5161 PSA	CLT 14:50	STL 15:56	19%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 459 American Flight history →	CLT 22:56	STL 23:58	30%	8%	0.9%	75%
AA 2686 American Flight history →	CLT 18:59	STL 20:03	31%	9%	1.0%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON