Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1975 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 1975 CLT 07:30 → TPA 09:23 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2022 CLT 20:16 → TPA 21:59 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1975 American	CLT 07:30	TPA 09:23	11%	4%	1.5%	no record
AA 2710 American Flight history →	CLT 09:22	TPA 11:16	16%	5%	1.1%	97%worse than usual
AA 436 American Flight history →	CLT 11:12	TPA 13:05	21%	7%	2.4%	83%
AA 2915 American Flight history →	CLT 12:54	TPA 14:49	21%	7%	1.4%	80%
AA 1773 American Flight history →	CLT 22:46	TPA 00:41	32%	8%	1.0%	64%
AA 545 American	CLT 15:28	TPA 17:25	33%	9%	1.4%	no record
AA 2515 American	CLT 16:51	TPA 18:47	34%	9%	1.4%	no record
AA 3051 American	CLT 18:53	TPA 20:49	35%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 2022 American Flight history →	CLT 20:16	TPA 21:59	38%	10%	1.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON