tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2657 at 11:25 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2657 American CLT 11:25 TUL 13:01 15% 4% 1.3% no record
AA 2662 American Flight history → CLT 18:25 TUL 19:58 29% 8% 0.9% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLT 11:48 → IAH 13:34UA 6236 · flown by Mesa 2h 56m Houston IAH 16:30 → TUL 18:08UA 6171 · flown by Mesa 7h 20m 99% 98%
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → TUL 09:18DL 2754 4h 48m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → CLT 17:00 → IAH 18:58UA 4020 · flown by Mesa 2h 44m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 7h 15m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 4h 55m 93% 80%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 3h 13m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 8h 49m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 6h 45m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:37 → TUL 11:54AA 2352 7h 09m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → CLT 15:17 → LGA 17:15AA 1942 2h 14m New York LGA 19:29 → TUL 22:08AA 4341 · flown by Republic 7h 51m 90% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLT 16:59 → PHX 18:29AA 3046 1h 01m Phoenix PHX 19:30 → TUL 00:09 +1AA 3585 · flown by Envoy 8h 10m 70% 50%
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:45 → ORD 07:59UA 1304 46m Chicago ORD 08:45 → TUL 11:03UA 5795 · flown by SkyWest 5h 18m 57% 48%
AmericanDetails → CLT 19:52 → DFW 21:44AA 1698 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531 4h 55m 56% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON