Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OH 5069 at 11:31 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day OH 5069 CLT 11:31 → VPS 12:18 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2197 CLT 21:08 → VPS 21:50 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5069 PSA	CLT 11:31	VPS 12:18	18%	5%	3.4%	no record
AA 5201 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 17:02	VPS 17:50	23%	7%	2.9%	71%
OH 5077 PSA	CLT 15:31	VPS 16:19	24%	7%	2.9%	no record
AA 2197 American Flight history →	CLT 21:08	VPS 21:50	32%	10%	1.1%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON