Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2469 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 2469 CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 2539 CMH 19:37 → ATL 21:25 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2469 Delta Flight history →	CMH 06:00	ATL 07:35	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 1479 Delta Flight history →	CMH 10:05	ATL 11:35	7%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 2909 Delta Flight history →	CMH 07:05	ATL 08:42	8%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 3165 Delta Flight history →	CMH 08:11	ATL 09:45	8%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 1522 Delta Flight history →	CMH 12:48	ATL 14:26	13%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 1750 Delta Flight history →	CMH 14:43	ATL 16:22	13%	4%	0.7%	77%
DL 2892 Delta Flight history →	CMH 17:06	ATL 18:45	19%	5%	0.9%	84%
WN 1233 Southwest	CMH 17:25	ATL 19:07	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 2786 Delta Flight history →	CMH 20:08	ATL 22:00	19%	6%	0.8%	75%
F9 2539 Frontier Flight history →	CMH 19:37	ATL 21:25	38%	14%	1.3%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON