Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3640 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3640 CMH 06:05 → AUS 08:09 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 568 CMH 19:25 → AUS 21:31 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3640 Southwest	CMH 06:05	AUS 08:09	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 4028 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CMH 13:58	AUS 16:09	18%	6%	0.7%	85%
WN 568 Southwest	CMH 19:25	AUS 21:31	25%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON