Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4642 at 06:49 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 4642 CMH 06:49 → BOS 08:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest MQ 3922 CMH 16:06 → BOS 18:22 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4642 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:49	BOS 08:55	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 5663 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:13	BOS 08:20	5%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 5654 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 10:40	BOS 12:43	6%	3%	0.6%	87%
YX 4524 Republic	CMH 11:57	BOS 14:17	7%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 5653 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 17:40	BOS 19:50	18%	7%	0.7%	68%
MQ 3922 Envoy	CMH 16:06	BOS 18:22	21%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON