Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3206 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 3206 CMH 06:01 → CLT 07:31 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1120 CMH 19:30 → CLT 20:58 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3206 American Flight history →	CMH 06:01	CLT 07:31	6%	5%	1.7%	94%
AA 3217 American Flight history →	CMH 08:03	CLT 09:40	12%	6%	2.3%	87%
AA 3219 American	CMH 08:00	CLT 09:28	12%	5%	1.5%	no record
AA 2180 American	CMH 11:51	CLT 13:19	14%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 2236 American	CMH 15:29	CLT 16:57	21%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 1120 American	CMH 19:30	CLT 20:58	24%	9%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON