Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4627 at 09:33 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4627 CMH 09:33 → DCA 11:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 3642 CMH 13:10 → DCA 14:39 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4627 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 09:33	DCA 11:02	7%	3%	0.8%	80%
AA 3861 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 06:09	DCA 07:37	10%	2%	0.7%	94%
YX 4777 Republic	CMH 16:04	DCA 17:40	16%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 4700 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 12:24	DCA 14:00	17%	5%	0.9%	70%
AA 4398 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 19:14	DCA 20:55	22%	8%	1.6%	73%
WN 3642 Southwest	CMH 13:10	DCA 14:39	25%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON