Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1329 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 1329 CMH 06:25 → DEN 07:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1389 CMH 17:09 → DEN 18:39 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1329 Southwest	CMH 06:25	DEN 07:30	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 728 United Flight history →	CMH 09:00	DEN 10:14	10%	3%	0.7%	86%
WN 2308 Southwest	CMH 12:10	DEN 13:15	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1250 Southwest	CMH 18:40	DEN 19:47	32%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1389 United Flight history →	CMH 17:09	DEN 18:39	36%	9%	0.8%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON