Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2380 at 07:13 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2380 CMH 07:13 → DFW 09:01 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2337 CMH 20:05 → DFW 21:48 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2380 American Flight history →	CMH 07:13	DFW 09:01	13%	6%	1.2%	89%
AA 2987 American	CMH 08:01	DFW 09:49	15%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 1279 American Flight history →	CMH 11:46	DFW 13:25	17%	7%	0.9%	80%
MQ 3515 Envoy	CMH 16:58	DFW 18:43	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1492 American Flight history →	CMH 14:42	DFW 16:30	24%	7%	0.9%	75%
AA 2337 American Flight history →	CMH 20:05	DFW 21:48	35%	9%	1.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON