Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5701 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 5701 CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 3867 CMH 19:15 → DTW 20:25 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5701 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:40	DTW 07:50	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 5812 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 08:15	DTW 09:22	4%	2%	0.6%	95%
YX 5859 Republic	CMH 12:02	DTW 13:15	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 5661 Republic	CMH 14:06	DTW 15:19	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3885 SkyWest	CMH 10:34	DTW 11:43	11%	7%	0.7%	no record
OO 3867 SkyWest	CMH 19:15	DTW 20:25	14%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON