Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 3458 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 3458 CMH 06:40 → EWR 08:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 2065 CMH 16:38 → EWR 18:38 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3458 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:40	EWR 08:33	4%	1%	1.4%	90%
UA 3457 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 07:54	EWR 09:47	6%	2%	1.9%	90%
YX 3528 Republic	CMH 09:20	EWR 11:29	7%	2%	1.8%	no record
UA 3480 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 11:35	EWR 13:28	9%	3%	1.8%	89%
UA 3596 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 13:15	EWR 15:08	22%	5%	2.3%	77%
UA 2065 United	CMH 16:38	EWR 18:38	34%	13%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON