tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3761 at 18:20, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3761 Southwest CMH 18:20 FLL 21:02 24% 8% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CMH 05:54 → LGA 07:46DL 5700 · flown by Republic 3h 09m New York LGA 10:55 → FLL 13:54DL 1181 8h 00m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic 3h 08m Detroit DTW 12:30 → FLL 15:34DL 1294 7h 19m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063 7h 20m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5656 · flown by Republic 2h 14m New York JFK 11:14 → FLL 14:24DL 305 7h 21m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → CMH 06:01 → CLT 07:31AA 3206 3h 28m Charlotte CLT 10:59 → FLL 13:01AA 2585 7h 00m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 5h 18m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 51m Chicago ORD 07:00 → FLL 11:13UA 1421 5h 43m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:59 → IAD 07:28UA 3430 · flown by Republic 52m Dulles IAD 08:20 → FLL 11:07UA 1825 5h 08m 95% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:23UA 4428 · flown by GoJet 57m Dulles IAD 08:20 → FLL 11:07UA 1825 5h 07m 70% 55%
UnitedDetails → CMH 16:25 → ORD 16:57UA 3465 · flown by Republic 1h 08m Chicago ORD 18:05 → FLL 22:15UA 463 5h 50m 71% 30%
FrontierDetails → CMH 19:37 → ATL 21:25F9 2539 54m Atlanta ATL 22:19 → FLL 00:18 +1F9 3014 4h 41m 58% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON