tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 10:53, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 354 United Flight history → CMH 07:15 LAX 09:06 13% 4% 0.6% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:13 → BOS 08:20DL 5663 · flown by Republic 2h 35m Boston BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004 10h 50m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:59 → IAD 07:28UA 3430 · flown by Republic 1h 57m Dulles IAD 09:25 → LAX 11:38UA 657 8h 39m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 10h 07m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic 3h 28m Detroit DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634 9h 20m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → CMH 05:57 → PHL 07:42AA 2867 1h 04m Philadelphia PHL 08:46 → LAX 11:34AA 824 8h 37m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → CMH 08:05 → PHL 09:45AA 4711 · flown by Republic 3h 37m Philadelphia PHL 13:22 → LAX 16:07AA 2944 11h 02m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → CMH 10:53 → MSP 11:55DL 2772 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 13:10 → LAX 15:04DL 2974 7h 11m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → CMH 06:49 → BOS 08:55AA 4642 · flown by Republic 1h 32m Boston BOS 10:27 → LAX 13:43AA 2141 9h 54m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 17:01 → IAH 19:04UA 4074 · flown by Mesa 46m Houston IAH 19:50 → LAX 21:26UA 483 7h 25m 64% 43%
AmericanDetails → CMH 20:05 → DFW 21:48AA 2337 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:43 → LAX 00:04 +1AA 2038 6h 59m 61% 34%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 19:00 → LAS 20:24WN 2721 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 21:34 → LAX 22:50WN 481 6h 50m 67% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON