Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5700 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 5700 CMH 05:54 → LGA 07:47 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 4791 CMH 17:46 → LGA 19:47 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5700 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 05:54	LGA 07:47	3%	2%	1.1%	94%
YX 4625 Republic	CMH 06:58	LGA 08:57	5%	2%	1.1%	no record
DL 5691 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 08:00	LGA 09:49	6%	3%	1.4%	86%
AA 4604 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 09:10	LGA 11:07	7%	3%	1.4%	87%
YX 5862 Republic	CMH 11:05	LGA 13:04	9%	5%	1.9%	no record
AA 4381 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 13:18	LGA 15:16	14%	6%	2.1%	77%
DL 5669 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 14:19	LGA 16:18	15%	6%	1.8%	78%
AA 4684 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 15:45	LGA 17:47	17%	7%	1.4%	43%
DL 5675 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 17:30	LGA 19:28	18%	8%	2.0%	88%
AA 4791 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 17:46	LGA 19:47	19%	7%	1.7%	67%
DL 4649 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CMH 14:25	LGA 16:14	38%	21%	12.5%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON