Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1314 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1314 CMH 05:05 → MCO 07:26 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1612 CMH 20:59 → MCO 23:29 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1314 Southwest	CMH 05:05	MCO 07:26	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1325 Southwest	CMH 09:50	MCO 12:11	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2997 Southwest	CMH 13:15	MCO 15:37	17%	7%	1.2%	no record
WN 384 Southwest	CMH 21:45	MCO 00:06	17%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 287 Southwest	CMH 18:05	MCO 20:26	25%	12%	1.5%	no record
F9 1612 Frontier Flight history →	CMH 20:59	MCO 23:29	27%	13%	2.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON