Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3667 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3667 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 07:00	MIA 09:44	15%	4%	2.4%	95%
AA 4085 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 14:06	MIA 16:43	35%	10%	2.8%	76%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic	1h 32m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	5h 48m	98%	81%
United Details →	CMH 05:59 → IAD 07:28UA 3430 · flown by Republic	1h 17m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	5h 36m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 57m	97%	80%
United Details →	CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic	51m Chicago	ORD 07:00 → MIA 11:24UA 1358	5h 54m	95%	77%
American Details →	CMH 06:09 → DCA 07:37AA 3861 · flown by Envoy	2h 18m Washington	DCA 09:55 → MIA 12:39AA 401	6h 30m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 02m	98%	71%
American Details →	CMH 06:49 → BOS 08:55AA 4642 · flown by Republic	2h 04m Boston	BOS 10:59 → MIA 14:23AA 2980	7h 34m	98%	69%
American Details →	CMH 06:01 → CLT 07:31AA 3206	1h 30m Charlotte	CLT 09:01 → MIA 11:02AA 3184	5h 01m	97%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CMH 13:05 → ORD 13:30AA 6347 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → MIA 18:33AA 1431	5h 28m	67%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON